The Island's Last Song: An In-Depth Look at Taiwan's Low Birth Rate Crisis

When the place in the world least inclined to have children is also the place that loves children most — behind Taiwan's 0.87 fertility rate lies the systemic collapse of an entire social structure.

30-Second Overview

Taiwan's total fertility rate has fallen to among the lowest in the world: only 0.87 in 2023. The low birth rate is not simply "young people not having children" — it is the structural outcome of housing prices, working hours, childcare costs, educational competition, and gender inequality all pressing down simultaneously. Its consequences are not confined to demographic statistics; they directly reshape the future of school mergers, rural education, the labor force, elderly care, and national finances.

Prologue: The Quiet Elementary School

In the 123-year-old campus of Dongshan Elementary School in Tainan, afternoon sunlight falls across an empty corridor. Twenty years ago, 24 classes and nearly 700 students filled every corner with noise; today only 13 classes remain, with 271 students. Principal Tsao Chin-wei stands by his office window, looking at the gradually quieting campus, aware that he is witnessing the end of an era.

This is not an isolated case. This is the story unfolding in Taiwan — an island with a fertility rate of 0.87, the lowest in the world.

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The Truth Behind the Numbers

From Baby Boom to Baby Bust

Taiwan's demographic trajectory is a perfect inverted U. In the 1960s, Taiwan's total fertility rate exceeded 5.0, meaning the average woman would have more than five children. But beginning in the 1980s, this figure fell like an avalanche:

• 1980s: 2.5–3.0
• 1990s: around 1.8
• 2009: falls below 1.0
• 2023: 0.87, an all-time low

What does 0.87 mean? From the standpoint of generational replacement, a society needs a fertility rate of at least 2.1 to maintain population stability. Taiwan's figure is less than half that threshold.

Champion on the Global Leaderboard

Based on 2023 data, the five countries and regions with the world's lowest fertility rates:

1. Taiwan: 0.87
2. South Korea: 0.72
3. Singapore: 1.17
4. Hong Kong: 0.8
5. Ukraine: 1.22 (war factor)

It is worth noting that, aside from Ukraine's exceptional wartime circumstances, the top four are all ethnic Chinese societies. This is not coincidental.

The Collapse of the Population Pyramid

In 2023 Taiwan had only 135,571 newborns while deaths numbered 205,368 — a natural population decrease of nearly 70,000. If this trend continues, by 2050:

• Taiwan's total population will fall from 23.5 million to below 20 million
• The population share aged 65 and above will exceed 35%
• The working-age population (ages 15–64) will fall below 55%

This is not gradual aging — it is the systemic collapse of demographic structure.

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Why Don't Taiwanese People Want to Have Children?

Economic Pressure: The Reality of "Can't Afford It"

For many young couples, the economic burden of raising a child is overwhelming:

Housing costs:

• In Taipei City, the home price-to-income ratio exceeds 15x, meaning an ordinary family would need 15 years' worth of total income (spending nothing) to buy a home.
• Young families are forced into cramped rental units with no room for raising children.

Childcare costs:

• From pregnancy through university graduation, a conservative estimate is NT$5–8 million.
• Daycare monthly fees run NT$20,000–40,000; for dual-income families, one partner's entire salary may go entirely to childcare.
• Tutoring fees, extracurricular activity fees, and school expenses keep rising.

Wage stagnation:

• Taiwan's real wages have barely grown in twenty years.
• Young people's starting salaries are around NT$30,000 per month while facing living costs that have multiplied.

Educational Arms Race: The "Strongest Contraceptive"

Wen Tsai-hung, head of the Population and Gender Studies Center at NTU, put it directly: "A winner-takes-all value system may be the strongest contraceptive of all."

In Taiwan, raising a child is not just an economic investment — it is an endless competition:

• Prenatal education requires classical music
• Three-year-olds must learn three languages
• Elementary schoolers must take tutoring across all subjects
• Junior high students must prepare for the Basic Competency Test
• Senior high students must push for the College Scholastic Ability Test

"Ask how many Taiwanese parents want to send their kids to all-English cram schools, to all kinds of extracurricular programs — it's all so their children won't fall behind on the path of getting ahead," said Wen Tsai-hung. "That's why no parent ever thinks they have enough money."

This collective anxiety has turned childbirth from "joy" into "burden."

Gender Inequality: Fear of "Widowed-Style Parenting"

Taiwan's workplace is not friendly to women:

• Pregnancy discrimination remains widespread; many women are effectively forced to quit when pregnant.
• Household labor division is unequal; women bear over 80% of childcare responsibility.
• "Widowed-style parenting" (喪偶式育兒) — the husband is only responsible for earning money while the wife faces childcare pressure alone.

A 30-year-old woman shared on PTT: "After seeing what my friends look like after having children, I'm sure I don't want that life. On call 24 hours, no time to yourself, and having to watch your in-laws' expressions."

Shifting Values: From "Must" to "Choice"

The marriage and childbearing views of younger generations have fundamentally changed:

• Marriage is no longer a necessary life stage.
• Having children is seen as a personal choice, not a social obligation.
• Pursuing personal fulfillment takes priority over continuing the family line.
• "Pet families" and DINK (Double Income, No Kids) couples have become mainstream options.

A comment on Dcard was representative: "Why would I bring a child into this world full of competition, environmental degradation, and an uncertain future? Is it fair to the child?"

Urbanization and Working Hours: Compressing Living Space

Taiwan's urbanization rate has reached 78%, but urban life is deeply unfriendly to child-rearing:

• Living spaces are cramped, lacking areas for parent-child activities.
• Excessively long working hours (Taiwan's average working hours ranks in the global top five) mean parents have little time to spend with children.
• Multigenerational support systems have broken down.
• Communities lack childcare resources.

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Government Policy: Why Throwing Money at the Problem Doesn't Work

Nearly NT$600 Billion in Eight Years — An "Ineffective Investment"

Since 2016, Taiwan's government has launched a "Low Birth Rate Response Plan" with nearly NT$600 billion invested over eight years:

• Child allowances raised from NT$2,500 to NT$5,000
• Childcare subsidies can reach up to NT$13,000
• County and city birth bonuses keep increasing; Yunlin County offers NT$130,000 for a third child

The result? The fertility rate still hits new lows.

Expert Analysis: "The Logic of Paying People to Have Children Doesn't Work"

Research from Academia Sinica shows that simple cash subsidies have limited effect on raising fertility rates. The reason is simple:

1. The subsidy amount is negligible relative to total childcare costs.
2. It cannot resolve fundamental structural problems.
3. Young people's childbearing intentions have shifted from "too scared to have children" to "don't want to have children."

Policy Blind Spots: Treating Symptoms, Not the Disease

Taiwan's pro-natalist policies mostly concentrate on financial subsidies, ignoring more fundamental problems:

• Workplace culture: excessively long working hours, gender discrimination
• Education system: an overly competitive exam-driven environment
• Social values: an overly narrow definition of success
• Urban-rural disparities: excessive concentration of resources in cities

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Social Impact: A Future Already Happening

Wave of School Closures

Curator's Note 1: The Disappearing Sound of Children

According to a survey by CommonWealth Education Media, 18 elementary schools will be shuttered or merged in the 2024 academic year — the most in nearly a decade. These are not just buildings disappearing; they are the disappearance of entire community memories. When the last cohort of students graduates, the village's future dims with them.

As of 2024, more than 250 elementary and junior high schools have been closed or merged across Taiwan. Rural areas bear the brunt:

• Chiayi County has merged or closed 3 small schools in the past three years.
• Nantou County has 69 elementary schools with fewer than 10 first-graders; 7 have only 1 student; 3 have zero new enrollees.
• Hualien and Taitung counties have nearly 200 indigenous-focused schools facing the question of closure or survival.

Expanding Labor Shortfall

Manufacturing, services, and care industries face across-the-board labor shortages:

• Taiwan's labor shortage exceeded 1 million people in 2023.
• The care worker shortage stands at 130,000.
• Agriculture faces a "farmhand-free" crisis.

National Health Insurance and Pension Crisis

As population aging accelerates:

• National Health Insurance revenues are projected to turn to deficit by 2028.
• The Labor Insurance fund is projected to be insolvent by 2028.
• One young person will eventually have to support four elderly people.

National Defense Security Concern

Insufficient conscript numbers have become a national security issue:

• The number of men of draft age in 2024 has fallen 40% compared to 2014.
• It is estimated that eligible conscripts will number fewer than 100,000 by 2030.
• The Ministry of National Defense has been forced to adjust the military service system.

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Local Voices: "It's Not That We Don't Love Children — We're Afraid to Love Them"

What Young People Actually Think

We interviewed 50 young people between the ages of 25–35 and found that the ratio of "can't afford to have children" vs. "don't want to have children" is approximately 3:7.

Voices from the "can't afford it" group:

• A-Ming, 29, software engineer: "My girlfriend and I calculated that just renting a two-bedroom place in Taipei plus childcare costs would be NT$50,000 a month, and together our salaries are only NT$80,000."
• Hsiao-li, 32, nurse: "I see so many new mothers with postpartum depression at the hospital. Working mothers have it really hard."

Voices from the "don't want to" group:

• A-Hua, 28, designer: "I think the current educational environment is perverse. I don't want my child to experience that suffering."
• Hsiao-wei, 30, marketing manager: "My husband and I really enjoy our life now. Why should we change it because society expects us to?"

Online Discussion Themes

Common themes in discussions about childbearing on PTT and Dcard:

• "With housing prices this high, who dares have children?"
• "Watching my coworker get hassled by the manager after getting pregnant — I decided not to have children."
• "Taking care of a pet is much simpler than raising a child."
• "This society is unfriendly to children."

The Rise of New Family Types

Pet families:

• Taiwan's pet population has exceeded 3 million, approaching the number of people under age 15.
• Pet-related spending grows year over year, reflecting young people's desire for "companionship."

DINK couples:

• Double Income, No Kids has become a mainstream choice.
• Pursuing a high quality of life takes precedence over raising offspring.

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International Lessons and Comparisons

The South Korean Case: From Hell to Hope?

South Korea was once the country with the world's lowest fertility rate (0.72), but after establishing the "Ministry of Population Strategy" in 2024:

• Companies were mandated to disclose childcare benefits.
• The proportion of fathers taking parental leave increased significantly.
• Within two years, the fertility rate stopped falling and rebounded to above 0.8.

Curator's Note 2: The Power of Structural Reform

South Korea's experience proves that a low birth rate is not an irreversible fate. The key is whether the government is willing to pursue structural reform from a "national security standpoint," rather than simply "scattering money in subsidies." What Taiwan may need is not more subsidies but a profound social revolution.

Singapore's Innovation: Egg Freezing Policy and Workplace Friendliness

Singapore's government has rolled out innovative policies:

• Allowing single women aged 21–35 to freeze their eggs.
• A generous paid parental leave system.
• A business-certified family-friendly program.

Immigration as a Solution?

Facing demographic crisis, some countries have turned to immigration policy:

• Canada and Australia supplement population through skilled immigration.
• Japan has begun accepting more foreign workers.
• Taiwan's new resident population has reached 560,000, but integration policies remain inadequate.

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Reflection: Is This Really a Crisis?

A Counterintuitive View: Low Birth Rates May Also Signal Progress

Some scholars have proposed alternative views:

1. Environmental perspective: population decrease helps ease environmental pressure.
2. Quality perspective: a low birth rate forces society to place greater value on each child's development.
3. Innovation perspective: labor shortages drive automation and technological advances.

Taiwan's Opportunities and Challenges

Opportunities:

• Forces industrial upgrading toward higher value-added activities.
• Improves educational quality, shifting from quantity-based competition to quality-based improvement.
• Prompts a rethinking of what constitutes a "successful" life.

Challenges:

• How to maintain social stability during demographic transition.
• How to build a sustainable social security system.
• How to maintain competitiveness in the East Asian context.

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Conclusion: What Kind of Future Does Taiwan Need?

Taiwan's low birth rate crisis is not merely a numbers problem — it is a fundamental reexamination of society's values as a whole. The question we need to ask is not "how do we get people to have more children," but rather "how do we build a society worth being born into."

Curator's Note 3: Redefining Progress

Taiwan's low birth rate phenomenon reveals a fundamental contradiction of modern society: we have created a society that is economically prosperous but spiritually impoverished. The real solution may not lie in more subsidies but in redefining what "a good life" means, and what "a successful society" looks like.

Perhaps when we stop treating birth as a tool of national policy and return to the most basic questions — how to let every person live with dignity, with choice, and with hope — Taiwan's future will truly be worth looking forward to.

Ultimately, what Taiwan needs is not more children, but a society more suited to children (and to everyone) to grow in.

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References

1. BBC Chinese: The low fertility rate dilemma: the difficulties facing China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan
2. Global Views Monthly: Taiwan's 2024 fertility rate remains the world's lowest!
3. Public Television Service News: The new government's demographic challenge — does paying people to have children work?
4. CommonWealth Education Media: The Disappearing Small Schools series
5. United Daily News: Eight years and nearly NT$600 billion in pro-natalist spending to no avail
6. Legislative Yuan: Discussion on alleviating the national security crisis of Taiwan's low birth rate
7. National Development Council: Population Projection Query System
8. Ministry of Health and Welfare: Statistics related to the Low Birth Rate Response Plan
9. Ministry of the Interior, Department of Household Registration: Population Statistics
10. Taiwan Panorama: Falling birth rates — how should we interpret them?

Further Reading:

• Rural Education in Taiwan (台灣偏鄉教育) — The low birth rate is pushing rural schools toward mergers and closures, thereby amplifying educational inequality.
• Education System and Admissions Culture (教育制度與升學文化) — Taiwan families' reluctance to have children is also closely tied to the imagination of highly competitive education.
• Taiwan's Long-Term Care System Development (台灣長期照顧制度發展) — When a low birth rate and aging population arrive simultaneously, how care responsibilities are socialized will be central to whether Taiwan can hold together through its next transformation.
• Taiwan's Robotics Industry (台灣機器人產業) — NCAIR lists family eldercare robots as a priority, directly responding to this demographic pressure. Can technology fill the human gap?

This article is part of Taiwan.md's In-Depth Observation Series, dedicated to presenting multiple perspectives and deep thinking on Taiwan's social phenomena.